Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Funding plan a must for long-term medical care

Interesting study done by Met Life and reported in the Dallas-Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

(see Star-Telegram article http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/11/21/2649047/funding-plan-a-must-for-long-term.html )

The study can be found on the Met Life website by entering the name in the site search engine or here http://www.metlife.com/assets/cao/mmi/publications/studies/mmi-market-survey-nursing-home-assisted-living.pdf?SCOPE=Metlife#Page=3 . I would still like to see more detail about the costs included in the totals to better enable comparison between the U S experience and the Canadian experience.

The numbers are pretty high at $83,500 for nursing care and $39,500 for Daily Assisted Living but not surprising until one compares them to the expected annual income of a person in need or extends them across the entire population. The numbers then can be staggering.

This highlights the importance of CPP, OAS and other income support programs.

Remember going to retirement savings investment seminars and being told that CPP was not going to be there when we needed it? The Chretien/ Martin team changed the way it operated and its life was extended by 99 years or some time like that. Well, with Cons at the controls again, once again the investment seminar people are beginning to spout the same stuff about the unsustainability of the CPP et al. (is there some connection between Con governments and the rise of this message of desperation?)

It is no doubt true that CPP et al must be managed carefully, but it is nice to have as a starting point the level of need to be met. The Met Life study supplies an interesting piece to the puzzle.

It's always worthwhile to study demand before embarking on supply. That study of demand has to carefully done to ensure relevance. It can also be extremely useful for creating direction for structuring of any sort of public program, especially healthcare, even planning the timely supply of chocolate-chip cookies!

Mike

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Forbes Investment Newsletter November 14

Forbes alerts us to the release of Gary Shilling's new book, "The Age of Deleveraging".

First of all, I must tell you that I have NOT read Mr. Shilling's new book, although I am sure it is as readable and accessible and understandable as his other works and that recommends it.

So I have limited myself to Forbes introduction that tells us Shilling is warning about the drag of individual savings on economic growth.

This is interesting. Forbes tends to promote the interests of the supply side of the economy, in my opinion. Yet, they're alerting us to the dangers of slow growth because consumer demand is being replaced by consumer savings, meaning that demand pull is weakening.

This is bad news for business. That means it's bad news for those who would invest in business.

This is interesting to me because it clearly recognizes the importance of consumption as the driver of the economy. It has always seemed to me that over any length of time, and more so over longer time periods than shorter ones, business activity, including capital investment, is ultimately dependent upon consumption. Business to business activity is mostly part of the supply chain from base producers - my base producers produce talent, farm produce, ore, petroleum etc - to final consumption. It then seems to me that the main driver of economic activity is, in the final analysis, consumption.

It also seems to me that the financial foundation that supports all that activity is savings by individuals, even indirectly through the corporations they own.

I think what Mr. Shilling may be observing is a balancing of the two within individuals' prioritizing.

I think the debt engine has scared most of us and many are not excited about either going into debt or lending. We would just as soon pay down debt and avoid the peril of having the bank go under, resulting in having our debt obligations become enmeshed in another financial debacle.

It seems to me that one of the things missing in this entire financial mess was there was no transparent connection between financial activity and consumption. Financial players seemed to be playing a poker game with each other, constantly seeing and raising bids until someone was left holding the bag. The trouble was, security of supply of cash and credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The rest of us were left holding the bag. I'm pretty sure we were not even at the poker table!

I still see little activity that redresses that sad state of affairs, other than tax-payer support. The financial players don't seem to have changed their business model - modus operandi if you will, while government regulation has not gone far enough to make that transparent connection between financial activity and its service to the common good.

Yet, I am convinced that the solutions to financial and economic stability along with the reduction of risk that suggests, and stability of profitability to financiers that risk reduction suggests, lie in greater enablement of that connection of capital investment to final consumption.

I know that now I must read Shilling's book.

We Canadians Believe We Can Fly Too!

Years ago, Mad Magazine used to feature stories by Don Martin, often something like "Don Martin Drops 32 Stories" with the main cartoon character, presumably Don Martin, saying as he passed floors on the way down, "So far, so good!".

Thomas Friedman points out that, in effect, many political figures and political movements are still up to that, except, unlike Don Martin, they're wishing to take us with them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/opinion/14friedman.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a212

Of course Don Martin's character could have been saying, "I believe I can fly!" and indeed he would have been flying, sort of, with a somewhat suspect trajectory.

Thomas Friedman's column in the New York Times, an enjoyable, enlightening and rousing read to start your week.
Mike

Monday, November 8, 2010

We vs They

I was at a gathering of very interesting folks this evening sponsored by David Swann, the leader of Alberta Liberal Party. Guests provided an evening of Great thinking. Critical thinking. Not monologue, not dialogue but earnest polylogue, complete with senses of humour!

Heady discussions about society, government, the connection between the two and the kinds of each we want.

As is often the case, the discussion included issues of power concentration in bodies corporate versus power in the individual. That power is reflected in their respective amassed wealth. Corporate bodies, representing many as opposed to one as they do, almost always have greater concentrations of both power and wealth. That makes many of us democratically inclined folk squirm, at least a little.

There was talk about passing the cost of serving society in various ways onto corporate bodies.

I suggest that is a tricky thing to deal with. For instance, the discussion suggests that 80% of energy consumption is done by corporations, making individuals' efforts about 4 times less effective than corporations' efforts might be at reducing power consumption and the effluents associated with its generation.

The suggestion often arises that we must use the sticks and carrots available to our power concentrated in the hands of democratic governments to get those corporations to absorb their fair share of the costs of energy use and investment in energy efficiency.

It's a bit unfair to say that the 80% of energy use represents the amount of economic activity generated by corporations, but the concept of a great portion of economic activity as corporate activity is a valid one.

However, except in the case of production of armaments and support of military activity where the benefit to individual citizens might not be so readily apparent, especially in times of relative peace, all other corporate activity is in service of provision of consumer goods and services. These are the things we think we need and will purchase, thereby generating the business case for those corporations. While a significant part of all economic activity occurring at any one moment or even over a period of a year be characterized as business to business, in the final analysis, it really is part of a process from base producer to final consumer as I've heard some refer to the phenomenon.

Herein lies the dilemma. How do we make the corporate bodies pay more without making our cost of living cost more?

Interestingly, as I see it the dilemma gets even more complex. We individuals like to save. We like those savings to grow through the wise investment of our bankers, brokers and others we entrust with that task. Where do those savings make those earnings? I submit that most of those earnings come from only two sources, finance of public projects such as government owned infrastructure and private corporations producing some part of a needed supply or service. Savings growth is then generated by taxes to pay for public infrastructure or by profits earned by payments made by consumers of goods and services.

That means governments and corporations rely entirely on individuals for their source of capital investment prior to production and finally for consumption of that production.

"But li'l ol' me? I don't hold any shares in Power Corp." Is l'il ol' you sure of that? Does li'l ol' you participate in a government pension fund, private pension fund, employment insurance fund, life insurance, general insurance on house, car other possessions? Those funds are invested - you guessed it! to finance corporations' production.

One final point I raise. Do we individuals know just how much economic and political power we have? A lot more than we think. But it takes concerted and continuous effort, real day-to-day living democratically to make it effective.

For example, we might complain about the artifice of "greenwashing". That underhandedness is not all bad news, in my view. With or without conscience, the greenwashing corporation realizes the danger in alienating both savers and consumers. What if individuals quit investing in the corporation? What if individuals quit buying the products that our production is part of? We, Greenwashing Inc., are toast! Greenwashing is a clear acknowledgment of the power of individuals, even in a globalized corporate world.

Of course those options don't easily exist in the case of government services. However, with careful democratic governance, the individuals responsible for production by those government investment and production activities are directly accountable to us through the electoral process.

Alberta is an unusual case, vis-a-vis most European countries or even most of the rest of the Canadian population for that matter. We do not consume enough of the productive output of our corporations, particularly in energy production, to have much economic power by withholding purchases. That production is sold to others. The capital required for its production is likewise available from those others. However, as we have seen with the pressures from others over the oil sands production of "dirty oil", those others will apply some pressure and exercise some power. (Let's ignore for the moment the 25% of total oil production the United States uses to power its military, much of which in protection of its access to petroleum. Talk about dirty oil!)

It then takes not only a democratic government with courage to write and enforce laws of fairness with regards to that production, but also with imagination and the willingness to treat the individual owners and employees of those corporations as equal citizens. What does that mean? That means using that imagination to enable those corporations to be productive while still enabling fairness in our own markets for employment and sale of the resources belonging to the common good.

This may not be easy given the state of the art of our current economic and business models, but the success of the effort to do so is necessary because as Pogo said, "They is Us!".