GI Tract Upset - Part 2

Wonderful folks replied.  Thank you.  You have prompted me to reply to the issues you raised by adding perspective to GI Tract Upset (Part 1 as it turns out).  There are a number of issues to be addressed, so I will do so one at a time.

1. Truckload of what kind of laxative - As a matter of fact, contrary to my earlier response to that comment, yes, I do have perhaps not a truckload of laxative but I do have some type of remedy.  I am not the only model developer who is capable of proposing remedy.  In fact, there are a great many very effective modelers and models to help remedy the supply shortage.  These are control of custody models complete with end user demand forecasting.  They take into account time factors as experienced, not just time factors planned for.  Some are absolutely brilliant at structuring supply chains to enable smooth delivery at the consumer level.  We need to patiently wait as they readapt themselves to become more and more reliable.

Certain bottlenecks have at least two causes, 1) COVID-19 stricken people, 2) market choke points controlled by business relationships as major providers in particular exercise their market power to protect themselves.

1) In the matter or container ships and other transportation facilities, imagine COVID-19 getting into a ship’s crew.  How do they protect themselves?  There is the chance that most of the crew will contract COVID-19 at the same time.  Who then operates the ship?  Our hearts must go out to these people who find themselves locked into their place of work because they cannot mix with even their families.  Sailors are particularly hard hit, many of whom have been on board without a break for perhaps two years.  The productivity of these facilities has been hit hard, making delivery much more sporadic and random. 

2) Market dominance is structured to accomplish that very goal, dominate the market.  That means these large players get first call on whatever capacity there is.  With no port facilities deliberately designed to handle pandemic conditions, over-loading will happen.  The dominant players will be thanking themselves for having the foresight to make themselves dominant players.  I know of no business process management models designed to remedy market dominance.  I believe this is always seen as the role of government. 

1) & 2) One of the main points to remember is that these situations are baked into our system of supply.  When pandemics hit, a very steep learning curve and very strong action plan must be conceptualised and realised as we must “think out of the box” to effectively address new issues.  

2. Smartasses Versus Dumbasses - As this story unfolds, it does seem highly likely that there are manipulators and manipulatees.  That is a disturbing scenario to contemplate.  However, I do not address that in my commentary. That is a story for someone else to investigate and report on. 

3. Waste production - My inclusion of waste as an issue created an expectation of an essay on the subject of waste.  Well, I only incidentally address waste in this little essay.  This is a totally fair criticism.  However, I like to include the concept of waste in all thinking even if incidentally.  It’s a little reminder to myself: society barely scratches the surface of the creativity of humankind; 30% of food production is wasted; all water in the ocean and nearly all water in mountain streams now contains microplastics and a huge array of harmful man-made chemicals; the surface of the earth is warming to the point it will not support life as we know it; the oceans are acidifying and removing support for every living thing.  All that is I believe important, but I did run the risk of leading us off the rails from the main points of the essay by including it. 

4. Harshness of the Constipation Analogy - I used the constipation metaphor because unfortunately nearly all of us can relate to the phenomenon from personal experience. 

Please do not confuse intestinal blockage with truck blockade.  There are issues about the blockade that are far beyond simple protest.  But these are not addressed here.  Simple protest is ironically a large societal issue in any case.  What are the causes of protest, of strongly felt grievance?  That is the critical issue we must address.  We do not, in fact cannot, wish to stop protest.  We must address those issues in a way that confirms that everyone, including every aggrieved person, matters to us, to our society and our government.  We must work together to correct the situation.  We must demonstrate that collaboration is effective and helps improve the quality of life each of us experiences.  We must think critically to educate ourselves and each other about our issues on any subject.  We must responsibly address issues that motivate protest if we are to ever develop into a collaborative democratic society. 

So being driven to second thought by this criticism of use of constipation as an analogy, it then occurred to me that constipation is more relevant an analogy than I first thought.  Chronic constipation is known to have carcinogenic effect.  Grievance that is busting up society, driving it to dysfunctionality, might be a societal cancer. 

5. The Steps I propose to Get Us Out of the Situation are challenged - Hmm, perhaps when I expand on these in later work,  we can discuss agreement or disagreement again.  Meanwhile I offer the following brief description.

We have two major issues facing us.  The truck blockade symbolises one.  The shortage of supply is another as well as the suggested remedies for the resulting inflation. 

The Protests - If we look to 4. above, we see what I mean about finding ways to address protest.  As a society, we must take all protest issues as legitimate.  

The Shortage of Supply - see 1. above. 

Inflation - Cost is being inflated by the dysfunctioning of our supply chains all the way from base producers to consumers.  Raising interest rates and making people poorer through austerity cannot help that situation. 

6. Thank you’s - I am profoundly grateful to every single person who read this little essay, to every single person who responded, to every single person who challenged, and to every single person who offered a simple “Thank you.”